This is a great summary of a few reasons why people make mistakes when assessing the significance of new information. I find the bits about “non-sentient messengers” especially timely.
Wishful Significance: II
When we’re beset by seemingly unresolvable problems, we sometimes conclude that “wishful thinking” was the cause. Wishful thinking can result from errors in assessing the significance of our observations. Here’s a second group of causes of erroneous assessment of significance.